DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/02 12:00

   Continued Cattle Market Pressure Seen Thursday

   Pressure is seen in cattle futures Thursday morning, allowing for additional 
concern about further market weakness during early July. Lean hog futures are 
mixed, although trade volume remains limited.

Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Livestock futures appear to be casually coasting into the long holiday 
weekend with the same lackluster interest seen through the previous few days. 
Cattle futures continue to hold moderate to firm losses, trading $1 to $2 per 
cwt lower in all nearby live and feeder cattle contracts. The hope that buyer 
interest would redevelop after the first of the month has so far not proven 
out. But now the focus seems to be on potential buyer support early next week 
once holiday schedules are cleared and trade activity returns to a more normal 
routine. The Fourth of July holiday trade nearly always creates some volume 
disruptions in the market given how the holiday falls each year during the 
week, combined with summer vacation schedules. Lean hog futures seem to be 
showing limited signs of buyer interest during the morning trade, although at 
this point, anything except sharp nearly limit gains would still be considered 
minimal given the recent market pressure through the complex. December corn is 
up 3/4 at $4.43 and December soybean meal is up $0.70 at $305.4.  The Dow Jones 
Industrial Average is up 352.58 at 52,657.82.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Live cattle futures are showing additional end-of-week weakness with late 
2026 and early 2027 contracts holding losses at or near $2 per cwt at midday 
Thursday. Market apathy continues due to very light trade volume during the 
holiday week, as well as little to no new fundamental or technical market 
factors developing Thursday. All nearby contracts are now trading below the 
$240 per cwt threshold, which could create an additional barrier for the market 
in the next couple of weeks. Trade is expected to remain sluggish within the 
current daily trading range through the rest of the session as traders prepare 
for the long holiday weekend. Futures markets are closed Friday, with a normal 
schedule for Monday, potentially bringing back additional volume and interest. 
Cash cattle trade is starting to become more active through the morning 
Thursday. It is expected both sides will attempt to wrap things up before the 
end of the day, heading into the long holiday weekend with enough business done 
for next week's needs. Light to moderate trade is being reported in Kansas and 
Nebraska at fully steady money with Wednesday's business. A few additional bids 
are also on the table in those areas. A light trade was reported in most areas 
Wednesday. Northern dressed deals took place at mostly $403 -- $5 lower than 
last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower 
than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle are $1.45 lower at 
$240.375, October live cattle are $1.05 lower at $235.675, December live cattle 
are $0.98 lower at $235.60. Boxed beef prices are Mixed: choice down $3.61 
($387.65) and select down $0.49 ($369.20) with a movement of 58.30 loads (42.05 
loads of choice, 4.03 loads of select, 6.23 loads of trim and 5.99 loads of 
ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Feeder cattle futures continue to erode lower Thursday, despite hope that 
traders would try to square positions at the end of the week following strong 
market pressure during the entire week. With front-month futures falling over 
$10 per cwt in the last week, the concern is additional market pressure may 
develop despite continued focus on tight supplies and overall expectations that 
domestic beef demand will remain strong in the upcoming months. Very limited 
market interest is seen in a feeder cattle complex that is hard pressed to be 
actively traded in a normal week. The expectation that additional volume will 
return to the market early next week could bring about additional volatility to 
the feeder cattle market Monday. August feeders are $1.45 lower at $362.7, 
September feeders are $1.35 lower at $360.825 and October feeders are $1.80 
lower at $357.50.

LEAN HOGS:

   Lean hog futures are the bright spot of the livestock complex Thursday 
morning, but only because nearby trade is holding prices in positive territory, 
compared to moderate to strong losses developing in cattle trade. Little to no 
additional fundamental or technical shifts have developed in late-week trade as 
traders prepare more for the long holiday weekend than any other factor at this 
point. August futures are leading the complex higher with a $1.52 per cwt gain, 
but the August complex also has significantly lower market volume than 
surrounding contracts. This light volume adds to uncertainty about how 
substantial the late-week gains are and whether this support can hold early 
next week when additional trade volume enters the market. July lean hogs are 
$0.40 higher at $93.75, August lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $98.325 and 
October lean hogs are $0.38 higher at $81.875. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.37 with a weighted average of $95.79, 
ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 715 head with a five-day rolling average of 
$96.98. Pork cutouts totaled 132.27 loads with 118.40 loads of pork cuts and 
13.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.12 at $95.63.




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